Kitso Segolodi
18 Nov
18Nov

If you're waiting for a clear signal for Bitcoin's next major move, look no further than the monthly chart. The king of crypto is coiling within a technically significant zone that has historically separated bull markets from prolonged consolidations.

Our analysis of the monthly timeframe points to a clear narrative: Bitcoin is testing a make-or-break accumulation zone between $87,560 and $91,654. This isn't just another level; it's the confluence of a multi-year trendline and a vital support floor. What happens here will likely dictate price action for the remainder of the cycle.

Let's break down the key levels and the scenarios every investor should be watching.


The Bullish Foundation: A Springboard for New Highs

The current price action is testing a formidable support cluster:

  1. The Blue Trendline: This is the star of the show. A multi-year ascending trendline (visible on the chart from the 2022 lows) has consistently acted as a launchpad for each major bullish phase. Price is once again approaching this line, reinforcing its significance.
  2. The Accumulation Zone ($87,560 - $91,654): This price band is where smart money historically accumulates. A strong bounce from this zone would signal that long-term conviction remains unshaken, and the underlying bull market structure is intact.

Our Bullish Trajectory:
Should Bitcoin find a foothold here and show a confirmed reversal (e.g., a strong bullish monthly candle close), we anticipate a structured upward move:

  • Near-Term Target: $130,987. This is the first significant resistance level on the path to reclaiming all-time highs.
  • Medium-Term Target: $138,336. A break above $130K opens the door for a swift move to this next technical objective.
  • Long-Term Horizon: $149,254 and beyond. This represents a measured move from the current consolidation pattern, projecting a cycle high that aligns with many on-chain and cyclical models.

The path is clear: hold the $87K-$91K zone, and the rally towards and beyond six figures remains the most probable outcome.


The Risk Scenario: The Line in the Sand

In trading, conviction is nothing without a defined risk management plan. Our bullish outlook is contingent on the support zone holding.

The invalidation level is clear: a sustained monthly close below $87,560.

Why is this so critical? A breakdown below this confluence of support would:

  • Break the Multi-Year Trend: It would shatter the primary bullish trendline that has guided this cycle, indicating a significant shift in market structure.
  • Trigger a Deeper Correction: It would open the door for a much deeper pullback, potentially towards the $70,000 - $75,000 region, as stop-losses are triggered and momentum fades.

For us, this is not a signal to "buy the dip," but to reposition and reassess. It would force a re-evaluation of the macro trend and require us to wait for a new base of support to form.


The Strategic Takeaway

The current setup offers a high-conviction, defined-risk opportunity.

  • For Bulls: The zone between $87,560 and $91,654 is your accumulation area. Scale in strategically, with a final invalidation point at a break below $87.5K.
  • For the Cautious: Wait for a confirmed bullish reversal candle from this zone before committing capital. This provides an extra layer of confirmation.
  • For Everyone: Define your risk. Know exactly at what point your thesis is wrong and have an exit strategy ready.
Scenario
Trigger
Target 1
Target 2
Target 3
Bullish
Bounce from $87.5K-$91.6K
$130,987
$138,336
< $87,560
Bearish
Break below $87,560
Reposition
Reassess
N/A

Bottom Line: The market is giving us a clear roadmap. We remain tactically bullish while price holds above the $87.5K line in the sand. The convergence of technical factors at this level suggests the next major move is imminent. Trade the plan, not the noise.


Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research (DYOR) and consider consulting with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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