Soybean Market Insight – Breakout Confirmed, Strategic Buy Zones in Play

Soybeans have officially broken out of their long-term descending trendline (red), with the breakout candle printed on August 11, 2025. Price is currently trading at $1,036.10, and the structure suggests a potential continuation toward key resistance levels — supported by both technical momentum and evolving global fundamentals.

Technical Structure

• Current Price: $1,036.10
• Breakout Confirmation Level: $1,054.80
• Medium-Term Targets:
  • $1,155.20
  • $1,263.00
• Long-Term Target:
  • $1,384.30
• Buy Zones on Pullback:

• Tactical: $929.60–$944.70
• Strategic Accumulation: $862.20–$944.70

The August breakout above the red trendline marked a shift in market sentiment. Price is now consolidating above the blue ascending support line, with volume holding steady at 12.11K, indicating quiet accumulation. A clean break above $1,054.80 could trigger a medium-term rally toward $1,263.00, with long-term potential reaching $1,384.30.

Fundamental Context

Headwinds

• South American Oversupply: Brazil and Argentina continue to produce record volumes, capping global price upside
• Muted Chinese Demand: China’s import volumes remain below seasonal averages
• Strong USD: Elevated Core PPI readings and delayed rate cuts are strengthening the dollar, pressuring commodity prices

Tailwinds

• Weather Risk: Dry conditions in Brazil’s key growing regions threaten future yields
• U.S. Treasury Support: New financing programs for farmers may stabilize domestic supply chains
• Geopolitical Tensions: Trade route disruptions could elevate agricultural premiums and shift demand toward U.S. producers

Legacy Ladder Perspective

Soybeans offer a strategic commodity play for professionals, SMEs, and institutions seeking:

• Inflation-sensitive exposure
• Food security hedging
• Portfolio diversification beyond equities and crypto

We remain bullish, with a preference for accumulation between $862.20 and $944.70, and confirmation of trend continuation above $1,054.80. Soybeans are not just a crop—they’re a signal of global resilience and a tool for legacy planning.